Football Betting UK - Avoid the Premiership

Most UK Football betting fans will place bets in multiples looking for high odds by correctly forcasting the result of numerous matches.

Often the matches are covered as permutations for small stakes i.e. doubles, trebles, fourtimers, fivetimers etc.

Picking Six selections offers the following combinations:

15 Doubles
20 Trebles
15 Fourfolds
6 Fivefolds
1 Accumulator

That's a total of 57 bets, and for obvious reasons is referred to as a Heinz.

Bookmakers make it easy to place a Heinz by offering a special betting slip, or just requiring a box to be ticked, rather than having to write out 57 different bets.

Part of the reason that they promote such bets is that the odds are heavily stacked in their favour, particularly as the stake remains the same for all 57 bets. So a 50p Heinz would cost £28.50 to stake

In reality, the odds of a six-fold accumulator coming in are much less than getting a double up. The sensible approach then is to reduce stakes as the odds increase.

With the same stake money our bet might now be:

15 £1 Doubles
20 48p Trebles
15 19p Fourfolds
6  16p Fivefolds
1   9p accumulator

But which type of result should we try to predict?

WE can choose, for each match to predict a home team win, an away team win, or a draw - they are the only possible outcomes.

Across the UK leagues from the Premiership to League 2 it works out this way:

Home wins occur in 44% of matches
Away wins occur in 27% of matches
Draws occur in     29% of matches

So the average true odds of each result are:

Home win - 1.27/1
Away win - 2.7/1
Draw     - 2.45/1

So for example, if we backed the home team in all matches at 1.27/1
we would break even (neither win, nor lose) over a season.

In addition, if bookmakers offered those odds, they would not make a profit, so they don't. Instead they decide what profit they want to make, and reduce the odds that they offer to suit.

In Horseracing, this reduction in odds from the true odds, known as the overround, can be anywhere from 10% - 40% and more. For UK Football matches, it is generally in the region of 4% - 9%.

In practice, the odds offered by the bookmakers will vary massively from these true odds avarages, particularly for homes and aways involving the most successful clubs.

Here's an example from the coupon for a match played on 27th January 2007:
Manchester United v Portsmouth
Home win 2/7
Draw     10/3
Away Win 8/1

This is an FA Cup match, but both sides are in the Premiership, with Man Utd cuurently top, and Portsmouth 6th in the league. Clearly though, there is a high expectation of a Man Utd win. Although this is the most likely outcome, you will not get rich by backing them at 2/7 i.e you risk losing £7 to win £2.

Is a home win almost 12 times more likely than a draw?
I don't think so, particularly in the FA Cup.
If I was having a bet, I'd probably have a few quid on the draw, just to make watching the match more interesting. To me though, the match is not a serious betting proposition.

This is a particular problem with the Premiership and the most popular clubs. Bookmakers can offer poor value, yet still attract massive amounts of money.

The problem is not so pronounced in the lower leagues, so that is where my bets are now concentrated.

For more information visit: www.thefootballbettingsystem.co.uk/blog

 

Article Source: http://www.theukarticledirectory.co.uk